Here are my Total Market Overview reports for October. if you want more information on them or for your area please call.

Central Saanich:

North Saanich

Sidney Market

All of Greater Victoria

If you want to know whats going on with market email me for our exclusive Total Market Overview reports that we prepare monthly. Email me at ron@kw.com and i would be glad to send them your way.

See a sample of all of Victoria below.

A couple of points about the market and his column.

1. Unemployment has gone up from 3.1% to a whopping 3.2% in last few months. Different than media would have us belive.

2. Colwood Crawl, Peninsula Crawl, still happening. Everyone going off to work.

3. Real estate prices down. Yes but still up over 2005 and all years prevous. Will we see a slide? yes but only back to historical averages which means around $475,000 to $500,000 as average Victoria and area home price. still more than double 2002!

4. Interest rates are down. Lowest level in years and governement is talking lower rates in North America.

So why all the doom and gloom? yes the stock market is off big time but compared to 4 years ago it is still up. Besides who do you know who has made money in stock market? not me. I like to think I am pretty wise at investing has have done very well in Real Estate but not stock market. Why? I don't control it. I don't really know who does other than a few supposedly smart people and look at what they did to it. Creating phantom investments called CDO's and Derivitaves? I mean who undertands that? Looks like not even Wall STreet or Bay Street.

Why Real Estate? i like it because i can touch it, feel it, sit on it, rent it, live in it. Try that with your Enron or Worldcome or Bre-X stock. Try that with derivitives and cdo's!

With real estate moving slightly lower and rents moving up its a great time to be smart and buy a home that will take care of itself. Think about it, if you buy a home and get the mortgage payment to match the rent payment then you have the ultimate investment vechicle. Yes it may take time but I mean really how did flipping homes help economy? I know many and have many smart clients who buy for long term and the mortgage is paid for by the tenants. Plus there are great writeoffs along the way. If you want to truly build wealth then unless your name is Warren Buffett the only truly succesful way to do it is in Real Estate. Patient Real Estate.

A great book on this is Gary Kellers book The Millionaire Real Estate Investor .. Gary went and interviewed of the greatest down to earth Real Estate Investors and showed how the average person can do real well over the long term with Real Estate.

I always ask the hundreds of stock brokers who cold call me every year to send me thier T-4 from stock market investing for themselves before I would even meet with them. Guess how many have sent me this? none. Most admit to not making any money in Stock market and only money they make is in trading. That would be like getting surgery from a doctor who has a low or non existent success rate! Do you want that?

If you live on Sannich Peninsula or in Greater Victoria and would like to sit down for a hour with me and talk Real EState then give me a call. I will even give you a copy of The Millionaire Real Estate Investor for free just for sitting down with me.

Thanks

Ron

What does that mean for Victoria and Peninsula home sales? While we only changed last October so we still have a little way to go. I had been advising clients that the market was about to correct and many took action on that. But is a market adjusting a bad thing? no. People were wondering where all the Buyers had gone and thus the market had shown signs of slowing down. Well the good news is the Buyers never went away, the sellers did. With prices rising so much the Buyers were left behind.

So where does market go from here? well there is a bit more of a drop I predict due to the fact that house prices had increased by 129% over 6 years. not normal. Will they fall big time? No. but they will fall. that is what happened in USA in last few years and we now see that when prices get back to increasing on the same rate of growth as they had over last 40 years the market picks up. This is what is going on in USA.

Will Canada be affected by Bank Crisis? Yes but not in a bad way. I mean if you have a job, good credit then you will always be able to get a mortgage. The banks are taking a look at all loans with a much tighter eye ( I know this personally after having to re-do a loan on a commercial building I own. got the mortgage renewed but had to provide a lot more detail and reports to the bank) to the credit worthiness of the clients.

So if you plan on staying in a home for 3 or more years and don't want to rent then now is the time. You control your destiny. there are good buys out there and we have many reports that can help our clients to achieve all they want in buying or selling.

Well yesterday was a tough day as it always is when taking babies back to thier moms in Gypsy Village.

Working with the social  workers at Hospital and in Gypsy Village the goal is always to get the babies back to their moms as soon as possible.

Many of babies show up in Childrens Hospital not really sick but because the parents are unable to take care of them. Its interesting in the Spring and Fall during harvest and planting season that the number of babies in the hospital increase. This is due to the fact that the parents are working in the fields which is great.

I have been to Gypsy Village on numerous occasions and have the opportunity to see some of differences the government is making. They have a day care center now so that the parents can leave the kids there vs. sending them to hospital. there is a school in the area that starts at noon so that some of kids can try and get an education. There are many other great projects that people are working on to try and engage this part of the population that has been shunned and discriminated against for Centuries. I hope to write more on some of the new training programs and other things that volunteer organizations are doing.

She started in one of the rooms yesterday and free hand drew the pictures

below of Winnie the Pooh.

And then Ron started in on painting flowers.

 and now the finished work.

Its nice to be back and working with the great volunteers lead by the team of Sarah, Steffi, Beth and Mary who coordinate all the other short and long term volunteers in the Children's Hospital in Brasov. In addition to organizing volunteers they also help to raise funds to supply all the diapers used in the hospital on the 3rd and 4th floors. They also help to organize donations of clothing for all the kids in hospital. Its a big job and many may not realize it - I mean the volunteers supply the diapers in a hospital? How would that go over in North America? But in Romania with so little trickling down from the government these "Angels" as Jan  and I call them go to work each day with a smile on their face and joy in their heart as they work with the kids. There is no judgement on the moms or the government but just love for what they get to do by volunteering.

When we first met the girls we thought wow, someone who likes to work with kids. But its more than that. These selfless 4 along with the Directors of Hope for the Nations Romania, Mark and Coreen Biech, just have a heart of giving. I mean think about it; the volunteers have to raise money to supply all the diapers to hospital, they have to raise money to pay their rent, utilities, food and basic living expenses all in order to give back. And then they go in to the hospital Monday thru Saturday to play with the kids, to change them, to feed them and just give the children something we all crave and that's to be cared for and be made to feel like we matter.

It is so humbling to work as a volunteer over here. I remember our first trip and how we thought we would be giving so much to the people over here. Wow was I wrong. The kids, the volunteers, the Families we come in contact give us way more than we could ever give them. They are my heroes and its so nice to be able to come over and make a difference.

If you want to make difference go to www.hftn.ro and click on donations. Help our the hospital or help out the volunteers who without this support would not be there to help out all the kids.

Ron

I agree with the article. I have always done much better with Variable rate mortgages and I have advised my clients to do the same. Take the largest payment you can right now and if mortgage rates go down then more is paid agains principle and the long amortization can be reduced, quickly!

Take care

Ron

Should you lock in your mortgage?

The perpetual question for people renewing or taking out new mortgages is whether to lock into to a fixed-rate mortgage, or go with a variable-rate mortgage under which the rate floats along with the prime rate used by the banks for top borrowers. Today, the choice has never been more complicated as a result of a credit crunch that has caused lenders to ratchet up borrowing costs for both consumers and businesses.

Example: Lenders of all types have been offering fixed-rate mortgages at rates that are inflated well beyond what they'd be under normal circumstances, even after the usual discounts are applied. Meanwhile, discounts on variable-rate mortgages have all but disappeared at the dominant lenders, and at least one of the big banks, Toronto-Dominion Bank has added a rate premium of 1 percentage point to its variable-rate loan. Prime today is 4.75 per cent. Rather that follow the previous custom of offering a discount of 0.6 to 0.9 of a point or more off prime, TD is offering this kind of mortgage at prime plus a percentage point, or 5.75 per cent.

Fully discounted five-year mortgages (that's what people usually choose if they go with a fixed rate) are running at about 5.45 per cent. That's not a bad rate by historical standards but here's the thing: With the economy weakening, it's widely thought that the Bank of Canada will start a declining rate trend that will push the prime rate lower. If that happens, borrowers with variable-rate mortgages will immediately benefit. Of course, people with variable-rate mortgages will be vulnerable when the economy rallies and interest rates start to move up again. But that could be a long time off. Bottom line, fixed-rate mortgages offer security in uncertain times at a fair price. Variable-rate mortgages, if you can still get one at prime, offer a chance to wring some personal benefit out of an economic slowdown that causes interest rates to fall.

Source Globe and Mail Report on Business, October 11, 2008

Chris and Dianne Richardson purchased the restuarant when we had it for sale for previous owners. They have done a great job in keeping the qwirky character and the fantastic food while bringing their own flair to it. Its always great to work with buyers like Chris and Dianne and they are special people who have a great restaurant.

To check out the story click here

Stop by and have a great dinner and let them know you saw it here.

Yes even the Real Estate Market in Victoria and Sidney and surrounding areas has been affected but by how much? if you bought your property in 2003 for $300,000 and I sell it for $560,000 (recent sale in October I had) is it a bad market? no its a correction. I believe the market in Victoria is off 10-15% on average. There are some markets that are off less or 0 and some off 40% or more. But should you stop buying real estate? No is the quick answer. What needs to happen is to be smart. Buy in the price range that is selling now which is anything below $600,000. Buy something with good value ie big lot, corner lot, big house with suite potential, great location, rented out.

I have always prefered Real Estate to stocks. I control it. i can fix up house, I can rezone if possible, I can occupy or I can rent. Can't do that with stocks. I have yet to see the average person who makes money in stock market but yet I have hundreds of "average hard working people" who have done well in Real Estate.

Think about this. In the stock market some big company determines whether you win or lose in the market. you have no say. sure you can vote at company meeting but its the insiders who have all the winnings. In Real Estate you control when you buy or sell. I recently was worried about the whole business market and I was fretting over selling some of my rentals or not. My wife Jan gave me great advice - BREATHE! Here is why - the rentals are all rented out to great tenants. They pay the mortgage via rent.  The taxes are partially paid by tenant. So even if the value of home stays the same or even goes down then I still win through the Mortgage being paid off. Do stocks to that for you?

If you want to see how you can achieve great returns on Real Estate even without the value of the home going up send me a email at ron@kw.comor call me at 250-652-5098 and let me show you how you can make money in Victoria, Brentwood, Sidney and all of Greater Victoria Real Estate

I was first elected to public office in Sidney BC back in 1985 and then re-elected in 1987 and the gave it all up in 1990 to concentrate on my new daughter (soon to be daughters) and my business.

Central Saanich has been at a standstill for years now and i decided to throw my hat into the ring to make a difference.

IF I elected I commit to:

• a. Bring fiscal management to the municipality. After 23 years of running my own business both locally and across Canada I understand what it takes to make it work. I will go through the budget line item by line item and eliminate some of the wasteful spending. The current council has reduced the reserves of the municipality. That is because they are not business people. It is also because some don't pay property taxes and never have.
• b. Accountability to all the people. We are all under time constraints. It should not take weeks and months to get permits from City hall. I will go through all the process's to ensure that the maximum period for the majority of permits are 7 days or less. I will make sure the process is simpler and the staff is there to help.
• c. Hold the line on taxes. There are ways to better run the municipality. Hire good staff; hold them accountable to their job. Good staff will find ways to do more with less.
• d. Eliminate all frivolous and needless fees from municipality. You don't need punitive fees when you are trying to get ahead. Mistakes happen so let's fix it and move forward.
• e. New fire hall. Existing Fire Hall is seismically unsafe. I will work with the private sector to help develop a new and more centralized fire hall that is badly needed that will withstand an earthquake or other natural disaster. Take a look at private public partnership so the cost to municipality is reduced or even nothing.
• f. Get Central Saanich involved as a full partner in Panorama Recreation Center. For too long Central Saanich has had a free ride with Panorama. Sidney and North Saanich have been paying and Central Saanich residents have been using. It's time to be an equal partner and equal voice within Recreation commission.
• g. Bring Common sense to council. I don't need a study to make a decision. If I elected I realize that I am there to make a decision not to make a vote to have a study to tell me how to vote.
• h. Bring a 2 year grace period to allow all illegal suites in municipality to be legal.Work to get building code changed and work with all parties to make what is illegal in Central Saanich Legal. This is the first step in affordable housing. Remove the restrictions and barriers to these suites.
• i. Work with land owners to ensure that they build affordable housing into their developments that fit within municipalityso that it's a win win for both parties. Give bonus density but ensure that 10% of each project of over 10 units is affordable. If it is not win win then nothing will get built. Taxpayers can't afford to build it and nether can a builder without some benefit. No longer can we allow our affordable housing needs to be met by Sidney, Victoria or Langford. We need a plan that will allow people who grew up here in the community to stay and live and work in the community. We don't want to make this a community that some want where when you grow up here you must leave because there is nowhere to live or work.
• j. NO removal of any ALR lands from the ALR. Protect true farmland and work with farmers to give them what they need to survive in a tough market. Remove restrictions on staff housing or business hours. Farming is a tough business and we need to truly make it easier and not just offer lip service.
• k. I promise to donate 100% of my council salary to charity if elected. I will work for free because I believe it's time for a change, time for accountability, time for true leadership. It's time to make the council work for the people not have the people work for Council!

5 Years ago a few of the "Stars" as we are known (check out www.gostarpower.comfor info) got together and decided to help fund a Habitat for Humanity Home in every City we hold our annual conference. I was so pleased to get involved 3 years ago with the home in New York City. Since then I have helped with the home in 2007 in Phoenix and this year in Orlando. What was special this year is I got to be one of 5 stars who got to assemble the home! We arrived on the site and found the slab all poured and ready to go. then it was time for each volunteer and the homeowner to tell their name and why they were there. Following a prayer was said and off we went.

The walls all showed up on a flat deck built by a group of 65-85 year old volunteers in Orlando. Using a crib they build the wallls in the shop and then with overhead lift to help they put them on flat deck trailer in reverse order of how they go up. Awesome idea and volunteer idea.

So working with the group I was lead on bringing walls to the foundation and then a team would work at connecting the walls by putting nuts on bolts in floor plates and then nailing top pl ates on . It was awesome to watch the house go up. and working there along side us was the homeowner and her family. so awesome.

Then it came time for roof trusses. being 6'3 meant I got to be lead in bringing trusses in with  great team of folks. Then using a easy Y lift we were able to flip the trusses into place. We got the last truss up and on and nailed in place just before the afternoon thunderstorms (temperature was 94 with 96% humidity! welcome to Florida in July!)

All in all it was a awesome day and I encourage you to work with Habitat. Whether its volunteering in the office, helping out on a construction site or writing a check to help them out it really is a awesome experience to see the look on the face of the homeowner who without this help would remain in rental or subsidized housing and no hope for the future. My wife Jan and I are so pleased to help out this great organization . Check it out at www.habitat.org

Thanks so much for your support!

Basically the real estate problem as we know it was created due to the stupidity of Wall Street and Bay Street Investment houses. The packaged up loans as Asset Backed Commercial Paper and sold them off as bonds to unassuming Investors. then you had people who had no right in buying a home due to credit issues or lack of income , buying homes with all this "cheap money" that Wall street had created. Why was this done? Since 2001-2002 the Real Estate Market in Canada and USA has been on the rise, too much but that was due to cheap money, and many people were investing in Real Estate to get rich. Why? Well after Enron and World-Com and the dot com mess in USA and Nortel and Bre-X mess's in Canada many people like me thought why give my money to some company that i have no clue whats going on (people would say that was my naivete but hey major banks in Canada lost money on all this as did many investment houses on each side of border) why not put it into something i can touch, see, feel and believe in. At least with Real Real Estate you got something you could believe in. the 20%+ appreciation that was going on was not normal and many people did well but others got greedy. Real estate in long term is way better than Stocks in that you can always live in it, rent it and see it. After the flood of money left all the Stock Markets the investment houses had to cash in on Real Estate. How did they do it? by creating the whole Sub Prime mortgage mess. now that they created it they say Real Estate is Bad? is it ? or is it the people trying to offer mortgages as bonds and creating shaky investments?

Many banks in Canada did not and never lose on thier Mortgages in Canada. Interesting enough these so called smart bankers have lost millions investing in the US Sub Prime mortgage market. what drove this? Greed. and the desire to achieve more than average returns.

In the long term your own home is still the best investment you can make. it offers shelter, pride of ownership, a forced savings plan and over the long term appreciation.

If you are interested in Investing in Real Estate and how to do it right check out "The Millionaire Real Estate Investor" by Gary Keller. Gary and his co-writers Dave Jenks and Jay Papasan interviewed more than 100 successful Real estate Investors who had over time made lots of money by investing the right way in real estate.

The challenge in Victoria is that prices have more than doubled in 5 years, not a normal market. its not the prices so much that are affecting our market but the affordability gap. Less than 20% of people in the Victoria area can afford to buy a home right now due to the rapid increase in prices. While our slowdown will not be as great as in USA where in top 20 markets prices are off 13% this year we are going to see a noticeable slowdown in price increases. Our opinion is that prices have been flat for last 6 months and will continue to be flat for next 18 months. That means if you bought in 2006-2007 you will probably get what you paid for your home, less commission. I just had a client in from USA who bought a new condo from a developer in Victoria and was told that he would have no problem flipping the property. I had to let him know that there had been no resales in that building this year (large "green new project"  and that he was best to rent it. he agreed.

The one thing that has kept the Victoria condo market going is our low vacancy rate, less than 1%. People are buying condos and renting out so the mortgage is covered by the tenants. not a a great return on any money invested but will be OK if all costs covered and can wait for incomes to catch up to market.

If you are thinking of selling now then its important to hire someone who will be honest with you and who has a track record of this type of market. Victoria have many new Realtors who have never experienced this type of market so make sure that you talk with someone like me who has  been through two downturns in my 23 years of real estate.

A couple things to remember:

1. the Realtor does not set the market. that is determined by what the buyer and seller are willing to agree on. a good Realtor can interpret the data and show you what is really going on.

2. a cheap or discount commission does not sell your home faster or guarantee you will make  more money. Many times people think that a lower commission will get them more money. we have many clients who have tried the so called discount commission companies only to have their listings expire and not sell. Whats the cost of your home being on the market and not selling ? Yes i may cost more but with all the extra services we offer and the track record we have i always ask this question, "whats more important, the money you pay me or the money i put in your pocket?" Its sort of like hiring a lawyer or another professional, if you really needed help would you hire the cheapest one or the one who can get the job done? Lawyers, professional athletes and others are all paid differently, based on performance. if you want the most money and the quickest sale then hire the best. It pays to interview not just the cheapest but also those with experiance in dealing in markets like this.

3. staging a home. many people spend more money cleaning car for trade in than they do on home. its amazing what  a little TLC can do to a home.

For more information go to www.ronkubek.com or call me at 250-544-2929

Offered for rent at $3,400 per month plus utilities.

Offered for rent at $3,400 per month plus utilities.

My wife Jan and I had the great opportunity to travel to Romania in May for a Missions Trip. We went to Brasov to work on a extreme makeover home and work as volunteers in the Hospital Orphanage.

I worked along with others from Lion of Judah church here in Victoria and in Conjunction with Hope for the Nations Romania, at converting a 200 square foot former barn into a home for 6 people in a little village outside Brasov called Budilia. Constantine and his family of 6 have been living in this town owned home for awhile and it was in bad need of repair.

 we patched and painted walls.

installed a new subfloor, kitchen and wood stove and so much more.

Our project also involved outside in allowing us to bring water and

power into the home. Digging and mixing concrete to get this all done.

Of course over there all things were done with manual labour, no calling for machines or concrete trucks or the such.

We went to work on the inside.

The group we worked with are headed by Mark and Coreen Biech and they work with Hope for the Nations Romania (www.hftn.ro)

One of their main projects is the Brasov Children's Hospital. Mark and Coreen have worked hard at getting volunteers and sponsors to supply diapers, hold and change babies, feed them and just be with the kids.  Check out http://hftn.ro/pages/projects_hospital.htm and see the main page or check out the video at http://hftn.ro/pages/audiovisual_5minvideo.htm to find out more.

Jan and I were very moved by all that we saw there and can't wait to get back. We have a goal to go back and do some work in the hospital painting characters, building and number blocks, cartoon figures and more on the walls above the kids cribs so that they can have stimulation as many are in their cribs for up to 23 hours per day. If you would like to support us in this email me at ron@kw.comand I will let you know how to donate tax free to this project. We also look forward to another home makeover because as you can see below it made a difference in one families life and is that not what its all about?

When we first planned on going over Jan and I thought we were going over for the family and for the kids in the hospital. It could not be further from the truth. We got so much more out of this and we realize they were there for us. Our lives will never be the same after this trip and we will be back.

It is written that "From whom much is given, much is expected". I have been blessed with the ability to sell Real Estate and to teach and speak all over North America and have been rewarded by it and now I know of one area I have to and want to give back.

Some pictures of before are above and here are the pictures of the finished home:

Inside with new floor, new door and windows, new wood cook stove.

Here are the new counters with tile back splash. the pictures are the first family portrait of the family they have had.

 THis shows some of the clothes the group bought for the family. in addition you can see the new counters, new washing machine, fold out bed and much more. a little change!

To see more of the makeover check out http://www.hftn.ro/newsletters/41_05jun2007.htm

I encourage you to support the great work that Mark and Coreen are doing and if you wish to donate go to http://www.hftn.ro/pages/donations.htm and please donate. Let Mark and Coreen know where you heard about this so we can continue. And a reminder if you are interested in donating to our painting in the kids area please contact me directly.

Thank you for reading and God Bless!

Stats Canada has just released results of home ownership and has found that in Canada,  68.4% of all Canadians owned their own home in 2006. In BC our rate was higher at 69.7%. It would be interesting to see the mortgage amount vs home. in Canada we do not get to deduct interest nor do we have to pay capital gains on our homes and this is huge. i think reason for problems in US Mortgage market is due to deductibility of interest and the desire for people to have large mortgages. In Canada over 50% of my clients have a mortgage of 0 -50% of value of home. Allows for my solid foundation in mortgage market. Take  a look at full news article on home ownership at  http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20070912.wstatshousing0912/BNStory/robNews/home

For more information on home prices and the value of homes in Victoria send me a email.

My only hope is Canadian Govt. changes tax laws to allow for Tax free "Trading" of Real Estate. In USA they have what is called 1031 tax exchange. if you had a commercial property bought it for $500,000 and sold it for $1,000.000 you would have a $500,000 gain. however if you bought another property for $1,000,000 then the tax is deferred. In Canada there would be tax payable on 50% of the gain or in this case tax on $250,000. i hope our politicians gain change this.

I found it helpful to deal with affordable housing issues and to take a look at what all of Victoria and the 13 municipalities are doing.

It seems to be a comphrensive non-partisan committee and web site that was helpful to me in planning some new affordable housing initiatives.

Its always nice to see different options out there.

I enjoyed drive so maybe you will to.